Misunderstanding Tonight's Elections
Nov 03 2009, 23:40 EST [updated Nov 03 2009, 23:41 EST]
There are a bunch of elections today and while everyone is trying to read the tea leaves it is important to remember: incumbents lose during a bad economy. You can't read anything more than that into the results; during the great depression left leaning countries flipped right and right leaning countries flipped left.
Quite arguably state level politicians have a bigger effect on jobs than national ones because voters can easily migrate between the states but are reluctant to leave the United States (plus, where would they go?). Even so elections mean little because voters are rationally ignorant and will vote with their party right up until they vote with their feet (I have some family friends that loved California right up until they moved to Texas). Tonight's election returns are great fodder for TV talking heads but - as much as I wish it wasn't true - the election results don't say much about the national mind, just the current family purse.