I find it hard to believe that a Republican will win the Senate seat this Wednesday Tuesday [update: my bad. I have a presentation on Weds so it's on my mind], but this poll has Brown up by 9% today and even a broad spectrum of polls say he is ahead. This is a state with a 3-to-1 Democratic registration advantage and tomorrow is a special election so turnout is anyones guess -- the Boston Herlad reported that absentee voting was on par with normal elections but maybe more people voted early?
There has been an outpouring of pontification on why this is a close race. I don't believe the policy wonk reasons, that is I don't believe that voters sat down and looked at the filibuster or the possible compromise bill. Some people might have, but the easier explanations are
- Coakley is a terrible candidate. She didn't even start campaigning until the polls narrowed so her opponent got all the press.
- Brown is a good candidate. This is very rare for the Mass GOP because people who want to pursue politics register Dem or move.
- Coakley is the Beacon Hill's machine candidate. She got the nomination because it was a "safe" seat and she'd paid her dues.
The election won't end on Wednesday unless Coakley wins by a safe margin. If the race is very close we can expect challenges and recounts. If the Brown wins by a safe margin then the race is on to see if Congress can pass the healthcare bill either before either Brown is seated (expect lawsuits if that happens), or by other means such as passing the Senate version without a compromise.
I have no good anecdotes about facts on the ground. There are almost no yard signs in my neighborhood. I've only seen one endorsement on Facebook (it was for Brown). In my Sunday night bowling league there were a couple jokes at Coakley's expense from people wearing Red Sox jerseys. That's it. Really I'm seeing a lot more enthusiasm for the race from out of staters because, hey, this is the only game to watch if you're into politics.
Update: more interested email from out-of-staters encouraging me to vote for Brown, including one from a family that didn't allow toy guns in their house during my childhood (they've mellowed since).