[jackdied.com] Bruce Schneier's <i>Beyond Fear</i>

Bruce Schneier's Beyond Fear

[jackdied]

Feb 16 2005, 01:31 EST [updated Feb 16 2005, 02:46 EST]

I've been listening to Bruce Schneier's interview on "Beyond Fear" (free, no reg required) where he talks about how badly people judge risk. My favorite example is that more people die from accidents involving pigs each year than sharks. Have you ever heard about one? or about the crackdown on "pig safety?" Another cute anecdote is that "I tell my friends never to be afraid of something they just heard about on the news. The risk is low otherwise it wouldn't be novel enough to be newsworthy!"

One argument he hits again and again I can't stomach. Namely that ten times more people die in car accidents every year than died on 9/11. His argument goes that we spend untold billions on terrorism prevention but no major acts have happened since. Cute, but he's smarter than that.

There hasn't been a terrorist attack since we started moving (and spending money). This doesn't prove there wouldn't have been an attack if we did nothing.
How much did 9/11 cost the economy? I've heard a Trillion dollars thrown around. Did we spend less money than that?
If people want more car safety or road regulations they can change their risk by buying a different brand of car or electing a different politician. These incremental solutions don't work on terrorists.
For a car if you drive the same brand in the same way yesterday and tomorrow your risk is the same. With terrorists one success encourages them to do more of the same.

I'm sure you can think of lots of similar reasoning (co-bloggers, feel free to add). His basic theme that people judge risks poorly is solid, and he quite rightly knocks the TSA as "security pageantry" but the terrorism stuff has got to go. My personal measurement of risk is asking if I ever knew someone two steps away (personally known by someone I personally know) that was affected by a particular risk. If I've never heard a story of a tragedy involving someone that close the risk can't be too great. Car accidents, train accidents, several kinds of cancer all qualify as familiar. I've never known someone killed by a pig. I did attend a friend's father's funeral after 9/11. Bruce can say what he likes, but by my risk assessment algorithm islamo fascists are right up there (throw in friends that have served in Iraq/Afghanistan and all the warning lights are lit). My algo is useless for most rare but cataclysmic events like asteroids hitting the earth. It is also crap for things like smoking crack and jumping off bridges, so by neccessity it requires a dose of common sense.

The website, ITConversations has lots of good techy streaming audio. I also liked Paul Grhaham's Great Hackers and Clayton Christensen's Capturing the Upside (a followup to "The Innovator's Dilemma"). I listened to ten hours of audio from there today, it was a nice change from my ossified playlist.

jackdied.com RSS feed Men are not fit to rule men and saints don't run for office. Email us About Python Stuff
Bruce Schneier's Beyond Fear [jackdied] Feb 16 2005, 01:31 EST [updated Feb 16 2005, 02:46 EST] [permalink] I've been listening to Bruce Schneier's interview on "Beyond Fear" (free, no reg required) where he talks about how badly people judge risk. My favorite example is that more people die from accidents involving pigs each year than sharks. Have you ever heard about one? or about the crackdown on "pig safety?" Another cute anecdote is that "I tell my friends never to be afraid of something they just heard about on the news. The risk is low otherwise it wouldn't be novel enough to be newsworthy!" One argument he hits again and again I can't stomach. Namely that ten times more people die in car accidents every year than died on 9/11. His argument goes that we spend untold billions on terrorism prevention but no major acts have happened since. Cute, but he's smarter than that. There hasn't been a terrorist attack since we started moving (and spending money). This doesn't prove there wouldn't have been an attack if we did nothing. How much did 9/11 cost the economy? I've heard a Trillion dollars thrown around. Did we spend less money than that? If people want more car safety or road regulations they can change their risk by buying a different brand of car or electing a different politician. These incremental solutions don't work on terrorists. For a car if you drive the same brand in the same way yesterday and tomorrow your risk is the same. With terrorists one success encourages them to do more of the same. I'm sure you can think of lots of similar reasoning (co-bloggers, feel free to add). His basic theme that people judge risks poorly is solid, and he quite rightly knocks the TSA as "security pageantry" but the terrorism stuff has got to go. My personal measurement of risk is asking if I ever knew someone two steps away (personally known by someone I personally know) that was affected by a particular risk. If I've never heard a story of a tragedy involving someone that close the risk can't be too great. Car accidents, train accidents, several kinds of cancer all qualify as familiar. I've never known someone killed by a pig. I did attend a friend's father's funeral after 9/11. Bruce can say what he likes, but by my risk assessment algorithm islamo fascists are right up there (throw in friends that have served in Iraq/Afghanistan and all the warning lights are lit). My algo is useless for most rare but cataclysmic events like asteroids hitting the earth. It is also crap for things like smoking crack and jumping off bridges, so by neccessity it requires a dose of common sense. The website, ITConversations has lots of good techy streaming audio. I also liked Paul Grhaham's Great Hackers and Clayton Christensen's Capturing the Upside (a followup to "The Innovator's Dilemma"). I listened to ten hours of audio from there today, it was a nice change from my ossified playlist.	Current Quickies Archives All Posts Jun 2010 May 2010 Apr 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Dec 2009 Nov 2009 Oct 2009 Sep 2009 Aug 2009 Jul 2009 Jun 2009 May 2009 Apr 2009 Mar 2009 Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Jul 2008 Jun 2008 May 2008 Apr 2008 Mar 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008 Dec 2007 Nov 2007 Oct 2007 Sep 2007 Aug 2007 Jul 2007 Jun 2007 May 2007 Apr 2007 Mar 2007 Feb 2007 Jan 2007 Dec 2006 Nov 2006 Oct 2006 Sep 2006 Aug 2006 Jul 2006 Jun 2006 May 2006 Apr 2006 Mar 2006 Feb 2006 Jan 2006 Dec 2005 Nov 2005 Oct 2005 Sep 2005 Aug 2005 Jul 2005 Jun 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 Mar 2005 Feb 2005 Jan 2005 Dec 2004 Nov 2004 Oct 2004 Aggregators Instapundit Arts & Letters Daily Fark.com CNN FoxNews Content - Articles National Review Tech Central Station Content - Big Blogs National Review Volokh Conspiracy Content - Blogs Junk Yard Blog Mass Backwards Mass Right Thought Mesh Chicago Boyz
Font: Bigger Smaller Screen Width: Narrower Wider	0.16 seconds
jackdied.com 2003-2007